The Charm of Coincidence

My dad just moved house and cleared out his stuff, and I was very happy to be given this relic from my childhood, now yellowed and cracked like ancient parchment.  When I was a kid my dad went on business trips to America and on one of them he brought back this:

You can read the list of Lincoln-Kennedy coincidences, and an explanation of the "mystery", at Snopes.

Before the internet could debunk this with a simple search, I was utterly captivated by this list of coincidences. It seemed so strange (though even I could see some of the comparisons were a bit of a stretch). I didn't for a minute believe there was any kind of "fate" or weird time travel conspiracy linking Lincoln and Kennedy. I just thought it was one of life's weird, puzzling little mysteries.

Like most humans I'm fascinated by questions of chance, risk, cause and coincidence. We find it so hard to believe things are random, pure luck or unconnected. Most scientists believe this is an evolutionary 'side effect' of our beneficial ability to 'join the dots', connect and analyse.

Some examples of things we find hard to accept are random (or at least not determined by the things we think they are), are:

• apparent psychic ability - telepathy, predicting the future
• the feeling of being stared at - the belief we can will someone to look at us by staring at them
• poker machine spins 
• human evolution
• lotteries
• surviving a disaster 
• meeting your partner

Some things truly are random coincidences, and some are not really coincidences at all, but just seem so because we assign meaning to the outcome.

As Richard Feynman apparently said at a lecture to demonstrate the fallacy of this type of automatic human thinking:

“You know, the most amazing thing happened to me tonight. I was coming here, on the way to the lecture, and I came in through the parking lot. And you won't believe what happened. I saw a car with the license plate ARW 357. Can you imagine? Of all the millions of license plates in the state, what was the chance I would see that particular one tonight? Amazing!”

I think we can all read that and immediately think of instances where we have mistaken randomness for coincidence, or coincidence for meaning.


Here is another little snippet on coincidences, from the Seinfeld episode 'The Statue'. You may remember, Jerry hired a cleaner, Ray, who he suspected of stealing a figurine from his home, when he saw the same figurine in Ray's apartment.  In this scene Elaine and Ray's girlfriend Rava are arguing about it.

ELAINE: Well, I mean, he was in the apartment, and then it's gone and it's in your apartment.

RAVA: Maybe you think we're in cahoots.

ELAINE: No, no... but it is quite a coincidence.

RAVA: Yes, that's all, a coincidence!

ELAINE: A BIG coincidence.

RAVA: Not a big coincidence. A coincidence!

ELAINE: No, that's a big coincidence.

RAVA: That's what a coincidence is! There are no small coincidences and big coincidences! There are just coincidences!

Yes, there are. And they will always fascinate us.

How about you? Succumbed to any good logical fallacies lately?

Confession

Two things caught my eye in blog posts this week:

This post on Freakonomics about a study on the effects on a marriage and a woman's work inside and outside the house when the wife can earn more than the husband (short answer: bad);

and this post on Blue Milk about a confessional essay by a feminist man examining his own hypocrisy. In referencing this essay Blue Milk posted:

"[O]ur personal relationships are usually where our most brutal hypocrisies present themselves. I wish we talked more about that part of our lives."

I am glad to hear that this is not just me.

So okay, I'll start:

• I resent the fact that I do more at home than my husband does, but I also sometimes do a bit more to help him feel more masculine and me feel more "wifely"

• It is very important to me that I, the children's mother, be their primary carer - even though it makes more sense economically for their father to do it

• I am sometimes resentful - against all fairness, logic or even what I actually want - that I didn't marry someone with a career which would allow me to be a stay-at-home mother

• when I read blog posts by feminists I admire I often wonder about their partners, how they make their partnerships work and how many of these feelings and compromises they deal with and what if any non-feminist measures they might make to "improve" their relationships

I am sure most of us have these feelings. And I am sure the important thing is how you act on them and how you talk yourself down, not the fact that you have them.

What about you?

The Evolution of Spam Comments

So, spam comments on blogs have changed over the past couple of years.

At first they were purely complimentary, like this:

Hey, great blog man! I really like your style, and your unique way of writing! Check out my website as well, and let me know what you think! www.bigrussianscam.com

Howdy! I could have sworn I've been to this site before, but after checking out a few articles I realise it's new to me. Anyway I have bookmarked it and will be coming back often. Feel free to visit my site: www.loseyourshirttradingoptions.com! 

Wow, thanks for your marvellous posting, you really are a talented author! I have added your site to my RSS feed and will keep reading with interest. I want to encourage that you continue your great work, have a nice weekend! Check out my site, www.weirdexercises.com

Sometimes these were so nice I was really tempted to publish them.



Others don't do it quite as well:

What a stuff of un-ambiguity and preserveness of valuable experience on the topic of unexpected emotions. Here is my weblog: www.inappropriatebusiness.com

Then gradually I noticed a touch of criticism creeping in - probably to make them seem more like real people?

Have you ever considered about adding a little bit more than just your articles? I mean, what you say is fundamental and everything. However think about if you added some great graphics or videos to give your posts more, "pop"! Your content is excellent but with images and clips, this blog could certainly be one of the greatest in its field. Fantastic blog! My site - www.importillegalanimals.com

I was curious if you ever considered changing the page layout of your website? It's very well written; I love what you've got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people can connect with you better. You've got an awful lot of text for only having 1 or 2 pictures. Perhaps you could space it out better? My site - www.fakedesigneroutlet.com

You might be correct, but f*** off anyway, spam robot!


Or there's the fake "hey just letting you know" type:

Hello there, I believe your web site could be having browser compatibility problems. Whenever I take a look at your blog in Safari, it looks fine however, when opening in I. E., it has some overlapping issues. I simply wanted to provide you with a quick heads up! Aside from that, fantastic website! My site: www.samesitesthatkeeppostingcomments.com

Lately, they seem to have given up all pretense, and just slam you with volume (hundreds of comments a week) and WORDS. Each one is crammed with as many SEO-friendly words as possible. They don't even attempt to make sense.

Factors several benefits together with the service to the software. If the insurance company believes the repair will be too costly they would rather not pay to fix it. There is a Gamestop located at [address]. My advise is to take some time to research and study the process yourself, which would give you enough leverage to do the property deal on your own. Here is my site: www.siteyoudontwanttoclickonevenoutofcuriosity.com

I know this post is going to get me inundated with more. But I couldn't resist.

Do you have a blog? How are you dealing with spam? 

by Ambro via FreeDigitalPhotos.net

The Ribbon

Children love the most unexpected things. One day on a whim I popped into a haberdashery store and bought two metre lengths of wide ribbon, one for each of my kids.

"Here you go," I said, and gave them the ribbons which I unrolled with a flourish.

"What for?" they asked.

"Anything," I said. You can use them for playing, or you can decorate something, or you can cut them up and use them for a craft. Whatever you want."

They loved them. They initially used them as gymnasts' twirling ribbons, then various other things, and after awhile A cut hers into smaller strips and made flags with straws and sticky tape, and that was her ribbon all used up.

M still has hers, and she still plays with it a lot. It is a rope, a scarf, a swing, a tightrope, a bell rope, a hair ribbon, a belt, a weapon, a blindfold. Today she got me to wrap it in a bow around a rolled up piece of paper to make a scroll.

Everyday Beauty: Sunset

On the weekend before last there was a magnificent sunset over Melbourne.

We were at Rowville, which is a much maligned big new suburb out east. I secretly don't hate Rowville (there's the last of my credibility gone I guess), and it does have the benefits of open space and big sky - the perfect place to see this.

By the time we got home it was mostly over, leaving only a soft blue sky and a huge full moon.